Monday, April 9, 2012

Caps make playoffs, draw Bruins. Bring it.



They're in. They avoided a first round bout with the Rangers. They drew the defending champs. Why not?

For the non-bandwagoners, throw your minds back in time about 14 years or so. The Caps were just starting their improbable run to their first and only Stanley Cup Finals appearance. They lost their number one goalie early in the season, leaving the reigns to be seized by the relatively unknown Olaf Kolzig. This year's Caps have lost their "top two" goalies in Tomas Vokoun and Michael Neuvirth, leaving the crease to rookie Braden Holtby. Both year's teams drew the Boston Bruins in the first round. Anyone see a similarity here?

Olie Kolzig scraps with Byron Dafoe of the Boston Bruins. The two were both the "best man" at one another's weddings.
Sure, the '98 Caps were a four-seed with home ice advantage while this year's Caps are seeded seventh, going against the league's 2010 playoff MVP in goaltender Tim Thomas, along with he and the Bruins' very shiny Stanley Cup rings. But the Caps also have reasons to believe that this upset can very well happen. 

The Caps took the year's season series with a record of 3-1-0, including two wins in Boston. Of course the Bruins  team the Caps saw during the regular season will be completely different than the playoff version. Here are the big questions that will determine this series:

Can Braden Holtby keep up with Tim Thomas?


In his last start against the powerhouse New York Rangers, Holtby recorded a 35 save effort, including several big stops against several of the Rangers' big stars. Holtby also recorded a stinker against Buffalo days earlier, allowing 3 of 18. Can Holtby get the job done? Absolutely, but he needs to avoid having one of his "off" games. Holtby's game is very similar to former goalie Olaf Kolzig's. He keeps himself big in his stance, square to the shooter and likes to aggressively cut off the angle. When Holtby keeps his game simple and avoids over-handling the puck outside of his crease, he is a very difficult goaltender to get one past, partly due to his size, and partly due to his stellar lateral movement. The Bruins are a team that score a lot of "ugly" playoff goals. Holtby's style of play, in theory, should be the perfect answer to the Bruins' offense.

Which Tim Thomas shows up to play?:


Every goal scored on Thomas will have to be earned in the coming days.
In nine of his last sixteen appearances, Thomas has recorded a save percentage of less than .900 on the night. However, when Thomas is on his game, he is among the toughest goaltenders in the league to slip one by. Thomas stands at only 5'11", but compensates for his lack of size with his quick movements and his will to keep the puck out of his net at all costs. Last spring, the hockey world caught a glimpse at what the 37 year old goalie is capable of doing when he's on. Caps fans, and players, will have their fingers crossed that he fails to duplicate such a performance again this spring.

What does Dale Hunter do about Boston's desire to match Chara and Seidenberg against Ovechkin and Backstrom?:



Last game in Boston, the Bruins lacked Dennis Seidenberg on the blue line but still used the home ice advantage to match Zdeno Chara against Alex Ovechkin. To counter this, Dale Hunter could split his top two players apart, leaving the Bruins to chose putting Chara against Ovechkin and Johansson, or Backstrom and Semin. Claude Julien would have a much more difficult time getting line match ups that he was comfortable with, especially if Backstrom continues to improve his game as the series progresses. Ovechkin cannot be ignored either though, as through his 23 games against the Bruins since they acquired Chara in 2006-'07, he has put up 10 goals and 15 assists. Will the Caps continue this trend throughout the series? Maybe only during games in Boston where they don't have the last change? It worked against teams before before, maybe it will work again.

How do MoJo, Perreault, and Aucoin players perform against Boston's bigger lineup?

Mathieu Perreault caps off his hat trick against the Bruins earlier this year.
Marcus Johansson notched the Caps lone goal and Mathieu Perreault stepped up in the absence of Alex Ovechkin in the Capitals' 5-3 victory over Boston on January 24, 2012, netting three goals against Tukka Rask, with Johansson contributing an assist. Perreault would return the favor, assisting on Johansson's lone goal in a 4-1 Caps loss on February 5th. Johansson picked up another goal and assist in the Caps' 3-2 shootout victory in Boston on March 29th, earning him first star accolades for the night. For the Caps to pull off the upset, there will need to be more performances like this from the little guys up front.

How will the series play out in the coming days? We must wait to find out, but next to the Penguins/Flyers matchup, Caps v Bruins could potentially be the most exciting first round series of the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs.


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